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SqueezePlay : February 2, 2011 : Impending Security Perimeter

A North American security perimeter is the expected outcome of Friday’s meeting between Prime Minister Harper and President Obama. Colin Robertson VP, Canadian Defense and Foreign Affairs Institute Senior Strategic Advisor, McKenna Long and Aldridge LLP and Gordon Giffin, former U.S. Ambassador to Canada and Partner, McKenna Long discusses the economic benefits and addresses concerns about Canadian sovereignty.

Powerplay February 2, 2011 Former Canadian Diplomat, Colin Robertson and senior fellow with the Hudson Institute, Chris Sands discuss why the Prime Minister would be nervous to discuss the possible security pact with the U.S.

Taking our continental partnership to the next level

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Taking our continental partnership to the next level Globe and Mail Wednesday, February 2, 2011 by COLIN ROBERTSON

On Friday, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and President Barack Obama will officially launch negotiations to take our continental partnership to the next level. The two will lay out a plan designed to make the 49th parallel “a boundary, not a barrier” and deepen the perimeter, stretching from the Rio Grande to the North Pole and from the Atlantic to the Pacific, that already applies to our shared air defence.

There will be agreement to further institutionalize joint operations on intelligence, law enforcement and migration, and the sharing and pooling of information, as we’ve done for half a century through NORAD. The ultimate goal should be to make the flow of people, goods and services between the world’s single biggest bilateral trading relationship as easy as that enjoyed within the European Union. With an eye to elections, negotiations will start with the intent of getting it done within the calendar year.

The launch will cap a process begun in Toronto at the G8/20 meetings, when the Prime Minister told the President that the management “process,” endorsed at the leaders’ Ottawa summit two years ago, was going nowhere. Mr. Obama may “love” Canada, but he’s preoccupied by Afghanistan and Iraq, the Middle East, Iran, the Koreas and, of course, the continuing economic debacle that has put the Republicans in control of the House of Representatives. Getting this far meant perseverance in overcoming rear-guard resistance from the Department of Homeland Security.

We need to take this next step because the gains of the free-trade deals were realized a decade ago. The border, meanwhile, is thickening, and Canadians need better access if we’re to sustain our prosperity. Mr. Obama’s declaration that he’ll double U.S. exports gives us our opening because the dynamics of supply chain integration means we have to be part of this equation. His re-election hinges on his ability to create jobs and improve competitiveness. Our shared objectives will be to take a “perimeter” approach to mutual security, to “smarten up” the border, to take a blowtorch to the regulatory thicket and to strategically manage our shared environment and its resources.

Getting it done will be difficult. The once-welcoming screen door has been replaced with storm windows and increasing layers of weather-stripping. After 9/11, authority passed from Treasury officials, for whom more traffic meant more revenue, to Homeland Security, for whom compliance is everything. We need to reintroduce risk management into the equation.

Mr. Obama must convince Congress that Canadians can be trusted and that including us in the security blanket serves U.S. national security and economic interests. Differentiating between the northern and southern borders while avoiding a reopening of the immigration debate will take skill and finesse. There should be eventual provision for Mexico.

The Canadian debate will be noisy. The kabuki-like foreplay, with endorsements by business, former Canadian and U.S. ambassadors and former prime minister Brian Mulroney, plays to populist arguments about a secret corporatist agenda. Concerns over privacy, standards and sovereignty need to be assuaged and the case made for how the initiative serves the national interest.

Mr. Harper needs to confide in Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff and the premiers. Last year’s agreement on procurement reciprocity demonstrated the value of our premiers reaching out to their gubernatorial counterparts. Canadian business and labour have to remind their head offices, customers and affiliates that continental supply-chain dynamics work to their advantage.

Taking the Canada-U.S. partnership to the next level makes sense. Sticking with the status quo means continuing incremental decline. Meantime, the global express is picking up speed.

Colin Robertson is vice-president of the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute and a senior strategic adviser with McKenna, Long and Aldridge LLP.

PM Harper and President Obama to meet in Washington February 4

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excerpted from Globe and Mail Harper, Obama to discuss big changes in border security February 2, 2011 Plans to implement greater intelligence sharing sure to raise sovereignty, privacy concerns

…According to Colin Robertson, a former diplomat who has discussed border issues with officials on both sides, at last June’s G20 summit in Toronto, Mr. Harper approached Mr. Obama to discuss the increasing difficulty of moving people and goods.

“The Prime Minister said ‘look, we’re not making the progress we’d like. Would you give this a bit of a boost?’ ” Mr. Robertson said. In exchange, he said, Mr. Harper promised, ‘if we have to look at perimeter defence … we’re ready to do it.’”

Canada and the China-US G2: ‘an opportunity if we choose to’.

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From ‘Will Canada Play the Energy Card in a US-China World’ by Campbell Clark in the Globe and Mail, January 19, 2011

…The U.S. concern for energy security, though it clashes with environmental opposition in Congress and parts of the Obama administration, makes Canadian energy a strategic interest – a way to ensure supply for the country, including its defence establishment, in any crisis.

The fact that Canada is a rare friendly, reliable and nearby supplier of energy is “our trump card,” says Colin Robertson, a former Canadian diplomat in Washington and Hong Kong.

Energy security, and the possible shipment of Alberta oil to China, are arguments Canadians are already using to overcome environmental objections to the TransCanada Pipelines XL pipeline, which would extend an Alberta oil sands link to Texas.

Proponents of West Coast pipeline argue it would diversify markets, allow a better price for oil exports, and encourage China to improve trade arrangements with Canada, such as investment protections or a broader trade deal. Mr. Robertson argues it would also provide leverage with the United States, attracting attention to encourage the approval of pipelines, improving electricity-grid links, even speeding the flow of goods at the border.

Pipeline projects take years of regulatory and government decisions, but if the Canadian government announced it was making a West Coast pipeline a priority, it would send both an encouraging signal to China and make the United States take notice, he argues.

Some doubt that would work, unless Canada was willing to play rough and offer the United States a quid pro quo – perhaps delaying a West Coast pipeline, or discouraging fast growth in Chinese energy investment. But the real benefit of a West Coast pipeline is still diversifying markets to China, and solidifying ties with a rising power, one Conservative politician argued.

That would require controversial domestic decisions. The Northern Gateway faces stiff opposition from environmentalists and first nations. Some who favour a pipeline worry it’s the wrong project because of those hurdles.

Aside from narrow economic interests, some argue that energy and pipelines are a way for Canada to expand its small role, a little, in the big game of shaping the two-superpower world.

The big question behind the Obama-Hu summit is whether superpower China joins a club of nations that deals with security outliers such as Iran and North Korea, and co-operates to create a more stable international economy. Mr. Robertson says Canada has historic, trade and people ties with both the United States and China, and real interests such as energy that concern them, that it can use to influence the new order.

“We really have an opportunity to play, if we choose to.”

On Diplomatic Gift Giving

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From ‘Federal Government Doubles Gift-Budget for Foreign Dignitaries’ by Rebecca Lindell Postmedia News in the Vancouver Sun January 19, 2011

OTTAWA — The federal government more than doubled its spending on gifts for diplomats since 2005, with the total price tag for diplomatic baubles coming in at just over $132,000 in the last fiscal year.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade distributed 2,608 gifts worth $132,610 to foreign dignitaries in 2009-2010 on behalf of the prime minister and other ministers, figures released Wednesday by DFAIT show.

Colin Roberston, a career diplomat and a senior fellow at the Carleton’s Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, says that while gift-giving may be traditional, it’s still important. “It’s not that the gift is going to open the door, but the absence of a gift can be viewed as a departure from protocol and perhaps a show of bad faith,” he said.

Bob Rae meets with UAE Leaders over Air dispute

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From ‘Bob Rae meets with UAE Leaders, fields air landing complaints‘ by Bill Curry in Globe and Mail, January 10, 2011

Liberal MP Bob Rae is meeting with senior leaders in the United Arab Emirates this week, where he says he’s getting an earful over Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s increasingly heated rhetoric in the dispute over air landing rights.But back home, the Prime Minister’s Office is questioning Mr. Rae’s trip and urging him to side with the Canadian government’s position in his meetings…It is unusual for Canada to be involved in an escalating tiff like this with a once-friendly foreign nation. It’s also rare for the opposition to step in so directly.“Is this unorthodox? Yes. Is it unprecedented? No,” said Colin Robertson, a former senior Canadian diplomat. “It does take place from time to time and it can be helpful.”

However, Mr. Harper’s spokesman, Dimitri Soudas, questioned Mr. Rae’s trip in an e-mail to the Globe.“Canadians expect that when Canadian MPs travel abroad that they represent Canada and Canadian interests. It would be extremely regrettable if Canadian interests were undermined in any way,” he wrote. “What the UAE was asking [for] was not in the best interest of Canadians. We trust Mr. Rae will recognize that during his fact finding visit and we urge him to convey that information to the UAE royals.”Mr. Robertson said the PMO’s comments likely serve a notice to the UAE that Mr. Rae is “freelancing” and does not speak for Canada.

Trilateral Meeting in Wakefield: Canada, Mexico and the USA

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Powerplay with Don Martin, Monday, December 13, 2010 Colin Robertson, former diplomat and MaryScott Greenwood of Mckenna Long and Aldridge, discuss the foreign affairs ministers meetings. Robertson says the meeting only touched upon issue regarding Haiti, but none of the big trilateral issues were discussed.

Canada US Security and Economic Perimeter Deal?

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Excerpted from National Post December 9, 2010 Pact with US to create N.American ‘perimeter’ BY JOHN IVISON

Colin Robertson, a senior research fellow with the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute, said the agreement is an attempt by the Canadian government to link security to improved access to the United States for Canadians.

“‘Perimeter’ is a vital word because back in the Chrétien government days we couldn’t use it because we would get caught up in the sovereignty allergy we too often have,” he said. “It makes a lot of sense.”

Mr. Robertson said that increased integration could impact areas such as immigration and refugee policy, but was unlikely to lead to a European Union-style agreement. “Economic union would mean a common currency and, over the last couple of years, it has been definitively proven that we are far better off with our own currency,” he said.

Wikileaks, Afghanistan and Ambassador Crosbie

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Excerpted from CTV News Thursday Dec. 2, 2010

Canadian envoy reportedly offers to resign over leak

A report in Thursday’s Globe and Mail indicates that William Crosbie, Canada’s ambassador to Afghanistan, has written to Ottawa to say he is concerned about what may come out on the WikiLeaks website.

The newspaper reports that Crosbie has seen a copy of a memo that will appear on WikiLeaks that quotes him criticizing Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

Crosbie has reportedly offered to resign his position in order to preserve the delicate relationship Ottawa holds with the Kabul government, according to the Globe report.

Former diplomat Colin Robertson said it is the right move for Crosbie to step down if the memo will be as damaging as he predicts.

“He’s the senior diplomat who presumably has had the respect of President Karzai and when he’s alerting the Canadian government, he’s saying: ‘Look, this relationship could be in jeopardy, so we’ll have to take stock over the coming days depending on what comes out,'” Robertson told CTV’s Canada AM from Ottawa on Thursday morning.

From CTV News Wednesday, December 1

As the leaks continue, more details about cables involving Canada are emerging. A former Canadian diplomat discusses the impact this is having on the country. He says Canada’s relationship with the U.S. is secure, but there may be some hiccups along the way.

Wikileaks

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Monday, November 29: In the wake of WikiLeak’s release of confidential diplomatic cables, CPAC Prime Time Peter Van Dusen welcomes Colin Robertson, former Canadian envoy to Washington and Michel Juneau-Katsuya, security intelligence specialist discuss the implications on U.S. foreign relations.

Excerpted from CTV.ca News Staff Mon. Nov. 29 2010 9:19 PM ET

Former Canadian diplomat Colin Robertson agrees that the diplomatic tradition should emerge from these revelations intact, if slightly red-faced.

“It’s not going to shake our relationship…. they represent a picture in time of a perspective of the relationship,” Robertson said in an interview from Ottawa on Monday.

Robertson expects the documents to cover a broad range of subjects including border issues, the Alberta oilsands and the U.S. president’s recent visit to Canada.

Even if unflattering portrayals of Prime Minister Stephen Harper emerge, Robertson says they are unlikely to impact his ongoing working relationship with U.S. President Barack Obama.

“They have a personal relationship,” Robertson said, noting that their two governments are echoing the reaction from leaders worldwide: that such communications are par for the course.

“These things are not intended to be made public … you do so with candour and trust thinking that what you write for your leadership is never going to be revealed to the other leadership. That’s how diplomatic relations have been conducted for centuries.”