Breaking down borders

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From Globe and Mail February 4, 2011 by John Ibbitson  Breaking down borders: Canada-U.S. trade and security

Much of the material used in this Folio comes from a draft paper written by retired diplomat Colin Robertson for the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute and the Canadian International Council. It is a look at what the agreements might look like once drawn up.

From Vancouver Sun February 4, 2011 by Barbara Yaffe Border-security talks politically dicey for PM

The Conservative government has released few details about the Washington meeting, the second such powwow between the two North American leaders.

Their discussions are expected to deal with a plan to “take economic integration between Canada and the U.S. to the next level,” reports former Canadian diplomat Colin Robertson, vice-president of the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute.

Robertson, in an article released Thursday, predicts a draft agreement for a security perimeter deal will be in place by November.

He says the goal should be to turn the 49th parallel into “a boundary, not a barrier,” and calls for a reintroduction of the principle of risk management.

A deal could see both countries’ military forces becoming interoperable, writes Robertson. It would feature cooperative deals on trade and border management, and include harmonization of government regulations and more intelligence sharing.

It also could force biometric scanning for all Canadians crossing the border.

“Sharing migration information is likely to be the major public sticking point in Canada — and a key requirement for the U.S.,” he predicts.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security, created after 9/11, now has 200,000 employees and spent $56.4 billion in 2010.

In a bit of unfortunate timing, the U.S. Government Accountability Office released a report Tuesday highlighting perceived security weaknesses along the northern border.

Connecticut Independent Senator Joe Lieberman declared the northern border “unacceptably ineffective,” noting: “Canadians do have more lenient asylum and immigration laws than we do here.”

Robertson, in an article released Thursday, predicts a draft agreement for a security perimeter deal will be in place by November.

He says the goal should be to turn the 49th parallel into “a boundary, not a barrier,” and calls for a reintroduction of the principle of risk management.

A deal could see both countries’ military forces becoming interoperable, writes Robertson. It would feature cooperative deals on trade and border management, and include harmonization of government regulations and more intelligence sharing.

It also could force biometric scanning for all Canadians crossing the border.

“Sharing migration information is likely to be the major public sticking point in Canada — and a key requirement for the U.S.,” he predicts.

Critics also fear the deal could force more restrictive immigration and refugee policies on Canada.

The project, politically, is dicey for the PM. While Obama remains popular in Canada and a sit-down with the president could enhance Harper’s own standing, there’s a downside, especially in advance of a possible election.

The Liberal Opposition issued a news release Thursday condemning Harper for holding “clandestine meetings with American officials.”

According to foreign affairs critic Bob Rae, “Mr. Harper is leaving Canadians in the dark about a major decision that will potentially affect every aspect of their lives.”

Robertson makes no prediction about the outcome of today’s session. “The president told us that he loved us when he made his first trip to Ottawa,” he recalled.

“Now we will find out how much.”

CDFAI and CIC Report on ‘Renewing the Partnership’

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Report offers ‘User’s guide’ to a new Canada-U.S. trade deal

Inside Politics Blog CBC February 3, 2011 by Chris Carter

A day before Prime Minister Stephen Harper is set to meet U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House, the Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Institute has released a report on the potential future of the bilateral relationship.r
The report (embedded below) by former diplomat Colin Robertson argues that in order to create “smart growth and jobs” in a post-NAFTA Canada, progress must be made in three key areas: “a common security perimeter, a rationalized regulatory regime that reduces red tape and a compatible approach to the stewardship and development of resources.” That last area includes a common approach to tackling climate change.

His report, titled ‘Now for the Hard Part’: A User’s Guide to Renewing the Canadian-American Partnership, then goes on to lay out a “plan of action” – both a way of getting things done but also what Robertson expects will actually happen, based on his research into what has been written and said on both sides of the border in recent decades.

The report envisions a much closer Canada-U.S. “partnership” than some Canadians might be prepared to accept.

Roberston says it will not be easy – he expects the Canadian debate “to be noisy” with “kabuki-like foreplay” – and says immigration issues will be one of the stickiest points for both sides, for different reasons.

Given the past battles over Free Trade and NAFTA, he is probably right, although much of this has flown under the publics radar so far – maybe his report will change that. But for all the potential for this to be a difficult course to navigate for a Canadian prime minister, Robertson ends his report by acknowledging that reluctance may be just as high on the U.S. side:

“The President told us that he ‘loved’ us when he made his first trip to Ottawa. Now we will find out how much.”

Now for the Hard Part

Canada US Border Deal?

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Excerpted from John Ivison National Post February 3, 2011 Egypt crisis opens door for oil sands

Colin Robertson, a former diplomat who is now vice-president at the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute, said Mr. Harper has to guarantee access to make it worthwhile. “It has to be big to be in Canada’s interests,” he said.

There is a large “green protectionist” lobby in the United States that considers the oil sands “dirty oil” that should be hit with a tax at the border to discourage its use. One bill, currently marooned in Congress, provides for a “border tax adjustment” for U.S. imports, based on carbon intensity.

A loophole in the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement allows either country to impose tariffs on the other for health or environmental reasons. But, with a line being drawn around the North American continent in terms of security, and Canada already committed to harmonizing its carbon-reduction strategy with the United States, Mr. Harper could convincingly argue there should now be a common environmental standard for the two countries.

Safe Upper North versus Volatile Middle East

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Excerpted from Globe and Mail Study gives Harper new clout in push to sell oil to U.S. SHAWN McCARTHY — GLOBAL ENERGY REPORTER OTTAWA— From Thursday’s Globe and Mail Feb. 03, 2011

“Our powerful card is that we are safe and secure; we’re the safe upper north as opposed to the volatile Middle East,” said Colin Robertson, a former official at the Canadian embassy in Washington and now an adviser with McKenna Long and Aldridge LLP.

Mr. Robertson said he would expect the prime minister will raise the pipeline issue as part of their broader discussion on enhancing cross-border security and trade. “If we’re looking at a big deal, it’s got to be more than a security pact, it’s got to be an access pact, and that includes our pipelines and electricity grids.”

What a Deal would look like

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From CTV  Harper, Obama set to kick off border security talks February 3, 2011

Colin Robertson, a former Canadian diplomat who has been consulting with government officials on the issue of border security, was less than optimistic about prospects for the negotiations.

“They want as much as we can give them, and we’re not going to give them as much as they want,” Robertson told The Canadian Press.

Regarding the summit delays, Homeland Security “wanted access to all migration records and a whole bunch of other stuff” but Canadian officials refused, he said.

“It’s been resolved sufficiently enough for us to move forward,” Robertson added.

Harper and Obama will set about trying to forge an agreement where their predecessors have failed, by attempting to strike a balance between the need to protect against terrorist threats and speed up cross-border trade.

From Winnipeg Free Press February 3, 2011

Harper-Obama “perimeter” border summit faces sovereignty speed bumps

By: Mike Blanchfield and Jim Bronskill, The Canadian Press

Despite the obstacles, Harper and Obama will formally kick off the negotiations Friday for a new, vaunted border framework in Washington.

“They want as much as we can give them, and we’re not going to give them as much as they want,” said Colin Robertson, the former Canadian diplomat who has been consulting with the Harper government on the issue.

Privacy commissioner Jennifer Stoddart has not been consulted on the perimeter-security initiative, said her spokeswoman Anne-Marie Hayden.

She said the office would be “watching with great interest” and will be “examining the situation thoroughly to ensure that privacy considerations are taken into account.”

Harper and Obama will try to succeed where others have failed in the last decade — balancing the security imperative of preventing another major terrorist strike against an ever-thickening border that is slowing trade and commerce.

The two leaders are expected to announce their goal is to get a deal before the end of the year.

It would formally entrench joint operations on intelligence, law enforcement and migration, while allowing the unfettered flow of goods, people and services across the 49th parallel.

This latest attempt to open the border has been fraught with behind-the-scene delays because Homeland Security has demanded detailed travel data from Canada — information about who is exiting and arriving in the country, and who is merely passing through our airspace on flights.

“Homeland Security wanted access to all migration records and a whole bunch of other stuff. We said No,” Robertson said in an interview.

“It’s been resolved sufficiently enough for us to move forward.”

Now for the Hard Part: Renewing the Canada US Relationship

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Report offers ‘User’s guide’ to a new Canada-U.S. trade deal

February 3, 2011 4:25 PM By Chris Carter

A day before Prime Minister Stephen Harper is set to meet U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House, the Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Institute has released a report on the potential future of the bilateral relationship.

The report (embedded below) by former diplomat Colin Robertson argues that in order to create “smart growth and jobs” in a post-NAFTA Canada, progress must be made in three key areas: “a common security perimeter, a rationalized regulatory regime that reduces red tape and a compatible approach to the stewardship and development of resources.” That last area includes a common approach to tackling climate change.

His report, titled Now for the Hard Part’: A User’s Guide to Renewing the Canadian-American Partnership, then goes on to lay out a “plan of action” – both a way of getting things done but also what Robertson expects will actually happen, based on his research into what has been written and said on both sides of the border in recent decades.

The report envisions a much closer Canada-U.S. “partnership” than some Canadians might be prepared to accept.

Roberston says it will not be easy – he expects the Canadian debate “to be noisy” with “kabuki-like foreplay” – and says immigration issues will be one of the stickiest points for both sides, for different reasons.

Given the past battles over Free Trade and NAFTA, he is probably right, although much of this has flown under the publics radar so far – maybe his report will change that. But for all the potential for this to be a difficult course to navigate for a Canadian prime minister, Robertson ends his report by acknowledging that reluctance may be just as high on the U.S. side:

“The President told us that he ‘loved’ us when he made his first trip to Ottawa. Now we will find out how much.”

Addendum: As colleague Rosemary Barton points out, Robertson has advised the Harper government on the perimeter security issue, so his view is not simply academic. Here’s part of what Robertson had to say in a Canadian Press story:

“They want as much as we can give them, and we’re not going to give them as much as they want,” Colin Robertson, the former Canadian diplomat who has been consulting with the Harper government on the issue, told The Canadian Press.

“Homeland Security wanted access to all migration records and a whole bunch of other stuff. We said no,” Robertson said.

But Robertson said the issue has been resolved sufficiently enough to move forward.

BILATERALIST

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Tracking Canada-U.S. Relations by Luiza Ch. Savage February 3, 2011
Colin Robertson: What a Deal Might Look Like
Published jointly by the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute and the Canadian International Council as a Strategic Studies Working Group paper

February, 2011

Against the backdrop of Canada-US relations since the Free Trade Agreement, this paper argues that with the gains of the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement and the NAFTA realized, creating new jobs and sustained growth will require boldness and initiative. It will oblige in-tandem progress on a common security perimeter, a rationalized regulatory regime that reduces red tape and a compatible approach to the stewardship and development of resources. The paper lays out a plan for action on ‘getting it done’ and offers ten lessons based on practical experience of working in Washington and throughout the US. A Background Document (to be published shortly) gives historical context and includes a bibliographic survey of the various and varied ideas on our complicated and complex relationship.

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SqueezePlay : February 2, 2011 : Impending Security Perimeter

A North American security perimeter is the expected outcome of Friday’s meeting between Prime Minister Harper and President Obama. Colin Robertson VP, Canadian Defense and Foreign Affairs Institute Senior Strategic Advisor, McKenna Long and Aldridge LLP and Gordon Giffin, former U.S. Ambassador to Canada and Partner, McKenna Long discusses the economic benefits and addresses concerns about Canadian sovereignty.

Powerplay February 2, 2011 Former Canadian Diplomat, Colin Robertson and senior fellow with the Hudson Institute, Chris Sands discuss why the Prime Minister would be nervous to discuss the possible security pact with the U.S.

Taking our continental partnership to the next level

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Taking our continental partnership to the next level Globe and Mail Wednesday, February 2, 2011 by COLIN ROBERTSON

On Friday, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and President Barack Obama will officially launch negotiations to take our continental partnership to the next level. The two will lay out a plan designed to make the 49th parallel “a boundary, not a barrier” and deepen the perimeter, stretching from the Rio Grande to the North Pole and from the Atlantic to the Pacific, that already applies to our shared air defence.

There will be agreement to further institutionalize joint operations on intelligence, law enforcement and migration, and the sharing and pooling of information, as we’ve done for half a century through NORAD. The ultimate goal should be to make the flow of people, goods and services between the world’s single biggest bilateral trading relationship as easy as that enjoyed within the European Union. With an eye to elections, negotiations will start with the intent of getting it done within the calendar year.

The launch will cap a process begun in Toronto at the G8/20 meetings, when the Prime Minister told the President that the management “process,” endorsed at the leaders’ Ottawa summit two years ago, was going nowhere. Mr. Obama may “love” Canada, but he’s preoccupied by Afghanistan and Iraq, the Middle East, Iran, the Koreas and, of course, the continuing economic debacle that has put the Republicans in control of the House of Representatives. Getting this far meant perseverance in overcoming rear-guard resistance from the Department of Homeland Security.

We need to take this next step because the gains of the free-trade deals were realized a decade ago. The border, meanwhile, is thickening, and Canadians need better access if we’re to sustain our prosperity. Mr. Obama’s declaration that he’ll double U.S. exports gives us our opening because the dynamics of supply chain integration means we have to be part of this equation. His re-election hinges on his ability to create jobs and improve competitiveness. Our shared objectives will be to take a “perimeter” approach to mutual security, to “smarten up” the border, to take a blowtorch to the regulatory thicket and to strategically manage our shared environment and its resources.

Getting it done will be difficult. The once-welcoming screen door has been replaced with storm windows and increasing layers of weather-stripping. After 9/11, authority passed from Treasury officials, for whom more traffic meant more revenue, to Homeland Security, for whom compliance is everything. We need to reintroduce risk management into the equation.

Mr. Obama must convince Congress that Canadians can be trusted and that including us in the security blanket serves U.S. national security and economic interests. Differentiating between the northern and southern borders while avoiding a reopening of the immigration debate will take skill and finesse. There should be eventual provision for Mexico.

The Canadian debate will be noisy. The kabuki-like foreplay, with endorsements by business, former Canadian and U.S. ambassadors and former prime minister Brian Mulroney, plays to populist arguments about a secret corporatist agenda. Concerns over privacy, standards and sovereignty need to be assuaged and the case made for how the initiative serves the national interest.

Mr. Harper needs to confide in Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff and the premiers. Last year’s agreement on procurement reciprocity demonstrated the value of our premiers reaching out to their gubernatorial counterparts. Canadian business and labour have to remind their head offices, customers and affiliates that continental supply-chain dynamics work to their advantage.

Taking the Canada-U.S. partnership to the next level makes sense. Sticking with the status quo means continuing incremental decline. Meantime, the global express is picking up speed.

Colin Robertson is vice-president of the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute and a senior strategic adviser with McKenna, Long and Aldridge LLP.