Harper government’s break with Iran leaves Canada without influence in Saudi spat: experts
The Harper government’s closing of Canada’s embassy in Tehran in 2012 leaves Ottawa virtually impotent to exercise any kind of influence to reduce the inflamed tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, former diplomats and foreign affairs experts suggest.
“If we’re not in one of the two critical capitals, it’s hard to bring analysis and on the site expertise. We just don’t have that,” said Colin Robertson, vice president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and a former Canadian diplomat. “Until we have people on the ground in Tehran, we’re handicapped.”
Tension between Saudi Arabia, the major Sunni Muslim power in the region and Iran, the major Shiite player, has sharpened over the past several days following the execution by Saudi Arabia of a prominent Shiite cleric, Nimr al-Nimr along with 46 others accused of terrorism.
Iranian protestors attacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran, the capital of Iran, following the news, causing Saudi Arabia to announce it was cutting diplomatic ties with Iran — and prompting multiple Middle Eastern Sunni countries, including Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, to follow suit and restrict their own relations with the Islamic Republic.
The Harper government cut off diplomatic relations with Iran in 2012 and formally listed it a state sponsor of terrorism. All Canadian diplomats were pulled out of the country, leaving Canada powerless to act even as a back-channel between the two rivals in the current conflict.
“Iran would not be willing to even consider, let alone accept, a conciliatory role for Canada,” said Thomas Juneau, former strategic analyst on the Middle East for the Department of National Defence and an associate professor with the University of Ottawa.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said during the election campaign that he would restore diplomatic relations with Iran if elected but has not yet said when that will happen.
Conservative foreign affairs critic Tony Clement said Monday on CBC News’ Power & Politics that Canada should hold off restoring relations with Iran until it shows it is willing to behave better.
But any changes to Trudeau’s plans are unlikely, experts say, because the conflict is throwing the need for accurate intelligence into sharp relief.
“I think the pressure is just to get a more informed view of what’s happening in the region by having diplomatic representation on the ground,” said Scott Heatherington, former director of then-Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development’s foreign intelligence division. “I would expect that to continue, notwithstanding what’s happening this week.”
Adam Chapnick, a professor at the Royal Military College specializing in Canadian foreign policy, agreed, saying the conflict emphasizes the need for Canada to get people on the ground in Tehran if it wants to have any role in influencing or even mediating outcomes in the Middle East.
Canada’s long-term economic and security interests also mean that Iran is too important a player to simply ignore, as the Conservatives did, Chapnick said.
“If you want to have influence in a region, you need to have eyes and ears on the ground,” he said.
Foreign Affairs Minister Stephane Dion issued a statement Monday morning expressing concern at the executions and the potential they have for further inflaming sectarian tensions between Sunnis and Shias.
Global Affairs Canada also declined a request from iPolitics to speak with Canada’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia, offering instead a brief emailed statement.
“Canada regrets the incidents which have led to Saudi Arabia’s decision to sever its diplomatic relations with Iran,” departmental spokesman Francois Lasalle said. “We urge countries of the region to work with all communities to defuse these tensions and promote reconciliation. We also call on Iran to protect diplomatic premises on its territory as per the Vienna Convention.”
The government also said Monday the strife will not impact the $15-billion deal it has with the Saudi government for the sale of light armoured vehicles.