Canada US Roadmap

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from POLICY: CANADIAN POLITICS AND PUBLIC POLICY

Colin Robertson  March 14, 2021

Are we ready to take our most important relationship to the next level of partnership?

The “Roadmap for a Renewed Canada-US Partnership”, announced during the virtual meeting in February of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President Joe Biden, is the latest iteration in managing neighbourly relations. Beginning with the last century’s trade and security agreements negotiated by Mackenzie King and Franklin Roosevelt, this century has included the Smart Border AccordSecurity and Prosperity PartnershipBeyond the Border and Regulatory Cooperation.

The seven goals enumerated in the Roadmap spell out current shared objectives:

  • Combating COVID-19 at home and abroad.
  • Building Back Better in sustainable fashion that also addresses new threats like cyber and rebuilds the infrastructure necessary for continental competitiveness.
  • Accelerating Climate Ambitions starting with a common approach between Canada and the US on things like carbon pricing, complementary standards on emissions, sharing R&D and innovation.
  • Advancing Diversity and Inclusion with the focus on disadvantaged groups – women, visible minorities, Indigenous peoples – in recognition that the rising tide of globalization did not lift all boats.
  • Bolstering Security and Defence including modernization of NORAD, especially its North Warning System.
  • Building Global Alliances to address the threat posed by authoritarians, recognizing that Canada must do more to share the cost burden with a commitment to reach the NATO defence spending target of 2 percent of GDP by 2024.This also means reforming our multilateral institutions, notably the WTO where Canada is leading reform efforts, and WHO.

For the Biden administration the Roadmap is not only a framework for managing the Canada relationship but a demonstration to its democratic friends that the US is serious about re-invigorating its alliances and reasserting US leadership of the rules-based order that successive presidents from Harry Truman to Barack Obama had led and sustained. Biden’s pledge that “America is back” begins with Canada.

For Canada, the Roadmap is a remarkable opportunity to re-set the US relationship and take it to a new level in terms of economic, environmental and security cooperation. It will require investment of money, resources and time and to succeed it needs to be a team Canada effort with the active support of the premiers, the Official Opposition, federal and provincial legislators as well as business, labour and civil society.

Progress on the roadmap requires focus, constant engagement and a recognition that we need to get as much done as possible before the US midterms in 2022 and that the clock runs out by the next presidential election in 2024.

This means building cross-party consensus, at least betwee the Liberals and Conservatives to ensure there the approach does not change if there a change in government. This is how we sustained NAFTA in the transition to the Chrétien goverment from the Mulroney-Campbell governments and on CETA and the TPP from the Harper to Trudeau governments. The First Ministers must be involved; issues like infrastructure and resources, involve their authorities.

Getting it done is always the hard part. Derek Burney, who served as Brian Mulroney’s chief of staff and then as our ambassador in Washington from 1989-93, would remind us often as we strategized about high policy that vision was important but what was vital was “Getting It Done” (and he so titled his erudite memoir.)

We need to recognize the asymmetries of our relationship, especially in economics and security. Bluntly, the US matters more to us than we matter to them. For Canada this means focus and continuous engagement. We level the playing field through a network of rules and agreements – at last count well over 20,000 – and institutions, preferably binational like NORAD, and the International Joint Commission, founded in 1909 with a view to managing the water along the world’s longest border.

Most of our diplomacy is conducted either bilaterally or multilaterally; we sit on opposite sides of the table. But binational means, at least in theory, that we operate together – side by side – for mutually beneficial results. It’s the antithesis of Donald Trump’s winner-take-all.

We need to recognize the asymmetries of our relationship, especially in economics and security. Bluntly, the US matters more to us than we matter to them.

We are deeply, deeply integrated economically – a process that began before the Second World Wat and has continued, despite bumps, ever since with the Autopact in 1965,  the Canada-US FTA in 1989, the NAFTA in 1993 and now NAFTA 2.0 including Mexico in 2020. Sixty-four cents of every dollar we generate comes from trade with the US, our main trading partner buying 75 percent of our exports (the European Union takes about 8 percent and China 4 percent). The US makes over half of our imports. Almost half of our foreign investment comes from the US. The US also provides our security blanket. We became allies before WWII, negotiating wartime defence production agreements and then the Atlantic alliance, NATO, in 1949 and the North American Air Defence Command, NORAD, in 1957.

We share the top half of our continent. The third, often forgotten but increasingly important piece in our institutional architecture, is our joint stewardship of the environment. The IJC has successfully managed our waterways for over a century.

Together, these institutions represent a continuous process of constant engagement.

So how do we get it done?

Allan Gotlieb, our longest serving US ambassador from 1981-89 set out a Decalogue of observations on “working Washington” in his 1991 book I’ll be with you in a minute, Mr. Ambassador: The Education of a Canadian Diplomat in WashingtonStill relevant, these three are especially current:

  1. The particular process by which a decision is reached in Washington is often so complex and mysterious that it defies comprehension.
  2. Since there are so many participants in decision-making, so many special-interest and pressure groups and so many shifting alliances, a diplomat cannot design any grand or overarching strategy to further his nation’s interests. Every issue requires its own micro-strategy and every micro-strategy is unique.
  3. No permanent solutions are within reach of the ambassador or his government, only temporary ones. Instability is the norm, alliances and coalitions are always being forged, forces and counterforces are always mounting.

While posted in Washington I kept a copy of Gotlieb’s book on my desk,  alongside the US Constitution, From my own experience of working on Canada-US relations beginning  with an assignment to New York in 1978, to Los Angeles as Consul General as first head of our Embassy’s Advocacy Secretariat, serving as part of the teams that negotiated the Canada-US FTA and then NAFTA, then working for a decade with both a US-based law firm and what is now the Business Council of Canada,  I’ve come up with these “Ten Rules of the Road” for getting it done when dealing with Uncle Sam:

  1. Get our collective act together because the Americans will always exploit our differences. Know what is our “ask” and what is our “give”. Know our facts, offer solutions not whinging. Public diplomacy is as important as closed-door diplomacy. Be brief, be blunt, be bold.
  2. Americans like big ideas that solve their problems. Go for gold: ask for what we really want rather than what we think they will give us. If we don’t take the initiative, then we take what is on offer.
  3. No surprises, especially in issues of national security. Security trumps all else. Americans expect a reliable ally.
  4. We have three overriding messages: We have your back. We are a trusted trading partner, “making things together” with our goods, services and resources fueling. And “Build Back Better”: As co-tenants of our continent we are joint stewards of our land, water and air.
  5. Make it a US issue and identify American friends, keeping in mind an adversary on one issue can be an ally on another, so never burn bridges. We can disagree without being disagreeable.
  6. Play by American rules, using lobbyists and lawyers. There are always more Americans who think like Canadians than there are Canadians.
  7. The American system is different from ours: read its Constitution to understand its checks and balances and separation of powers. The Administration is our entry point but the battleground is Congress, the states and cities. Beware of congressional noise: most proposed legislation fails.  Save the Oval Office for what is really important.
  8. Protectionism is as American as apple pie and as old as the Republic. For legislators, who must fundraise daily, all trade, like all politics, is local, so Canadians need to know the jobs generated by our trade and investment. Don’t ask for an exemption, ask for reciprocal treatment – that’s the art of the deal. And like politics, if you are not on the offence, you’re playing defence. There’s one trade bullet we can’t repeat often enough—Canada is the largest international customer of 37 US states.
  9. Americans like us more than we like them. But business is business and the business of America is business so don’t ever expect gratitude for what we think we did for them.
  10. It’s a permanent campaign requiring engagement at every level early and often. We need a thousand points of contact: PM to President, premiers & governors, cabinets, legislators, mayors, B2B, L2L, civil society.

Get this right and we not only advance Canadian objectives, we enhance our international standing. Brian Mulroney, the prime minister who best understands the US, has put it this way: “There is a rule of global politics–Canada’s influence in the world is measured to a significant degree by the extent to which we are perceived as having real influence in Washington.”

Know our facts, offer solutions not whinging. Public diplomacy is as important as closed-door diplomacy. Be brief, be blunt, be bold.

Have a thought for Biden. He faces the most formidable set of challenges of any president since FDR took power in 1933, when America was reeling under the Great Depression. For us to achieve progress on our new Roadmap we need to keep always in the situational awareness of the many challenges confronting the Biden-Harris administration. We should be helpful, wherever possible, because a healthy and prosperous Canada depends on a healthy, prosperous and strong America.

In his inaugural address President Biden outlined the crises – health, economic, social, and climate – as well as his determination to re-embrace multilateralism and restore American leadership.

The pandemic is job one. It has claimed over a half million American lives. More Americans have died from COVID than were killed in combat during in the First and Second World Wars as well as Vietnam. Biden is on track with his pledge of 100 million vaccinations in the first 100 days of his administration. Indeed, he now promises all Americans will have access to vaccines by summer.

The economic malaise caused by the pandemic is compounded by the larger forces of ongoing technological change and globalization. Jobless claims remain well above the worst levels of the Great Recession. At 100 percent debt-to-GDP US debt is higher than any other time in US history outside of the Second World War. Canada, by comparison, is about 50 percent  debt-to-GDP.

Americans, perhaps more than other nation, believed they were an exceptional people – living in what Ronald Reagan famously called “the city on the hill” – a new world where if you work hard, you too can succeed.  But now polls tell us most Americans think their children will be worse off than themselves. The top 10 percent of Americans now own over 70 percent of the country’s wealth; the top 1 percent controls more national income than the bottom 50 percent. Average income growth of the top 1 percent rose by 226 percent from 1979 to 2016; while working- and middle-class income distribution was comparatively flat.

Economic turmoil contributes to a social crisis complicated and compounded by race, gender, class and culture.  The trial of the Minneapolis cop who killed George Floyd casts a beacon on the grievances underlying Black Lives Matter:  if you are black you are twice as likely to die of COVID and three times more likely to be hospitalized. Black unemployment rates are double that of whites.  The net worth for median black households in the United States stands at $20,000 compared to $180,000 for whites.

There is renewed migrant pressure on the southern border from those fleeing crime, corruption and bad government. This movement helped propel Trump to the White House on the promise of building a wall to keep them out.

Then there is climate change, with the attendant complications of biodiversity and pollution – rising temperatures and freak weather, wildfires, hurricanes, tornados, freezes, and floods of biblical proportion. According to NASA, 2020 tied with 2016 as the hottest year on record.

Biden must manage all these crises against a profound political divide that has galvanized partisans on both sides. Republican and Democratic voters not only disagree over plans and policies but they also disagree on “basic facts.”  The 68.7 percent  with over 155 million casting ballots meant that 2020 saw the highest voter turnout since 1900. A switch of only 124,000 votes in just four states would have meant a second Trump administration.

Despite the loss of the White House and both houses of Congress, the Republican Party remains Donald Trump’s partyMost Republicans still believe that the election was stolen. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell declared Trump was “morally responsible” for the January 6 attack on the Capitol,  but he and all but seven of his Senate caucus still voted against his conviction following his impeachment by the House.

The political challenge for Biden is not only inter-party but intra-party,  pitting the progressive wing led by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, among others, – against the moderates – Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. As Will Rogers once remarked: “I am not a member of any organized party. I am a Democrat”.

In his inaugural address, Biden has set himself three overriding priorities: to revive and sustain the middle class; to fix the environment and to restore American leadership of the free world.  He and his team believe that wellbeing – economic, environment, health, social – is the best antidote to populism and the way to defend democracy.

It starts at home. As Biden put it at the Munich Security Conference: “We’re at an inflection point between those who argue, given all the challenges we face— from the fourth industrial revolution to a global pandemic—that autocracy is the best way forward… and those who understand that democracy is essential—essential to meeting those challenges.” To meet these challenges Biden said the US must “put ourselves in a position of strength  to be able to deal with the challenges we face around the world,” And that starts at home.

The Economist Intelligence Unit ranks America’s democracy behind Japan, Korea and Germany – those it helped to create. According to Pew only a fifth of Americans trust the government all or some of the time.

In his 1862 address to Congress, while waging the Civil War, President Lincoln said, “In giving freedom to the slave, we assure freedom to the free – honorable alike in what we give, and what we preserve. We shall nobly save, or meanly lose, the last best hope of earth.”

We want the US to succeed.  We want Joe Biden to succeed.

We want a united and democratic America just like we want a united, democratic Canada.

We all want to see a return to optimism and pragmatism – the can-do spirit that has been the enduring American characteristic and one that we all admire.

We can do a great deal together and with the rules of the road in mind, get it done.

The US, political scientist Ian Bremmer recently observed, is a country of contradictions. It set the global standard on game-changing vaccines while leading the world in COVID deaths and hospitalizations.

Its markets were at record highs while the Capitol Building was stormed by violent insurrectionists on January 6. It landed the new Mars mission while Texas endured third world-like power outages.

For all its innovation and entrepreneurship, the politics of the United States are profoundly dysfunctional and getting worse. At his confirmation hearing, Attorney General Garland Merrick vowed to prioritize domestic terrorism.

Authoritarianism – whether monarchies, dictators or oligarchies – not freedom and democracy, has been the prevailing system  of government for most of recorded history. Once more we have an authoritarian model – Xi Jinping’s China – one where their economy has done better than any democracy each year for 30 years.

We all want to see a return to optimism and pragmatism – the can-do spirit that has been the enduring American characteristic and one that we all admire.

As democracies turn inward, authoritarianism surges,  contributing to the 15th consecutive year of decline in global freedom, according to Freedom House’s annual assessment of political rights and civil liberties.

Xi Jinping can claim his model preserves order while giving prosperity. And now he is exporting it abroad through Belt and Road Initiative and through reinterpreting and revising the rules in international organizations.

We have enjoyed what the great Canadian historian Margaret MacMillan describes as the “long peace” and the triumph of democracy, or what scholar Frank Fukuyama once called the “end of history”. But as Nobel laureate, Bob Dylan sang, The Times They Are-A-Changin’.

Study history and you realize that neither that long peace nor democracy is guaranteed. Study history and you know that the good guys don’t always come first.  While posted in New York in the late 1970s, I got to know the legendary BBC journalist Alastair Cooke. For half a century he read listeners a weekly Letter from America. He told me: “America is a country in which I see the most persistent idealism and the blandest of cynicism and the race is on between its vitality and its decadence.”

Say a prayer for Joe Biden.

Colin Robertson is Vice President and Senior Fellow of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute in Ottawa. He has served at the Canadian Embassy in Washington and as Canadian Consul General in Los Angeles. Adapted from the 14th annual Canada-US Law Institute Distinguished Lecture at Western University, London Ontario.

Trudeau BIden meeting

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Trudeau, Biden’s first bilateral meeting to lay out future of Canada-U.S. relations

BY CORMAC MAC SWEENEY AND KATHRYN TINDALE

Feb 23, 2021 at 11:17 am MST

FILE – In this Dec. 9, 2016 file photo, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets with then U.S. Vice President Joe Biden on Parliament Hill in Ottawa. Biden will still host Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Tuesday for the first bilateral meeting but will do it virtually. (Patrick Doyle/The Canadian Press via AP)
SUMMARY

The prime minister and U.S. president will hold the first official bilateral meeting Tuesday afternoon

The two leaders are expected to lay out a road map for the future of Canada-U.S. relations

OTTAWA (NEWS 1130) – When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President Joe Biden meet virtually Tuesday afternoon, the two leaders will be looking to unveil a plan for Canada and the U.S.

The meeting will be the first official bilateral meeting since Biden took office, and a fact sheet released earlier in the day by the White House says this meeting is to set out a “road map” for Canada-U.S. relations.

Colin Robertson, a former Canadian diplomat who was posted in the U.S., said the map will set out goals in areas of mutual interest, including the COVID-19 response, climate change, economic recovery, and defence.

However, it’s not clear if this plan will include some of Canada’s priorities, such as procuring more COVID-19 vaccine doses made in the U.S., freeing Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig from China, or securing an exemption to Biden’s Buy American policy.

NDP Leader Jagemeet Singh said he wants to see Canada get an exemption from the policy.

“Given the fact that our economies are so integrated, products aren’t just made in Canada or America. Often the very same product goes over the border a couple of times,” he said.

Robertson expects Biden to Trudeau support when it comes to China, but he doesn’t think the president will make any promises when it comes to the Buy American approach. The former diplomat believes Biden will likely put off granting an exemption for the time being.

“I think that they’ll probably punt it to study. I think we’re going to have to make the case,” Robertson added.

The two leaders will also likely discuss Keystone XL, the ill-fated cross-border pipeline expansion that has become a lightning rod for political criticism from both sides of the aisle.

The meeting will start with only Trudeau and Biden one-on-one before the meeting expands to include the cabinets of both governments.

US Ambassador to Canada

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One month after restoring regular order in their initial half-hour telephone call, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and U.S. President Joe Biden will set the scope of that partnership on Tuesday. The two have shared priorities between them: managing COVID-19 and an economic recovery with a focus on growing the middle class, securing the resiliency of supply chains, bolstering defence and security, tackling the issues of climate and energy, and promoting diversity and inclusion.

But what’s missing from that list is the urgent need to name a new U.S. ambassador to Canada.

It has been 18 months since Kelly Knight Craft, Donald Trump’s ambassador to Canada, left for the United Nations; even when she was on the job, as a U.S. Senate inquiry revealed, she spent half of her 22-month Canadian assignment in the United States. Her nominated successor, Dr. Aldona Wos, had a Senate hearing, but she was never confirmed.

The U.S. ambassador matters because he or she holds the sole presidential appointment where the job is to think about Canada 24 hours a day. With their Canadian counterpart in Washington, they are the quarterbacks in the field: identifying and heading off potential problems, trouble-shooting many of them, usually without media attention, while providing advice and expertise to their respective governments.

The ambassador’s responsibilities cut across the various levels of government. Scarcely a week goes by without a conversation with a governor, a premier or a local official. It’s a reflection of the profound interconnectedness of our relationship. It is as much domestic in its scope as international.

While both countries rely on their professional foreign service to staff their embassies and consulates, the politics that inevitably goes with issues such as Mr. Biden’s recent scuttling of the Keystone XL pipeline means that Canada is better served when the U.S. ambassador has highly developed political instincts and the contacts that they can personally call on to fix things.

Recent U.S. ambassadors possessed these qualities and, just as importantly, developed an empathy for Canada. Michigan Democrat Jim Blanchard (Bill Clinton) and Massachusetts Republican Paul Cellucci (George W. Bush) served as governors; Mr. Blanchard had also previously served in Congress. David Wilkins (Mr. Bush) had previously been Speaker of the South Carolina legislature, while Gordon Giffin (Mr. Clinton), David Jacobson (Barack Obama) and Bruce Heyman (Mr. Obama) were lawyers for whom the politicking of fundraising, organizing and campaigning was their second profession. The politically connected Ms. Craft and her coal-magnate husband has donated millions to Republican campaign coffers.

The common denominator for these ambassadors was their personal relationship with their president. Their ability to pick up the phone and get through to the president or his chief of staff is what Canada wants in a U.S. ambassador.

When the U.S. ambassador weighs in, things get done: the Open Skies agreement, Smart Border, pre-clearance at airports and rail stations. As important is what they head off or quietly resolve – everything from ballast-water brouhahas to brawls over bridges. Even if Ms. Craft kept a low profile, she worked effectively with former Canadian ambassador David MacNaughton in keeping NAFTA renegotiations on track. Inevitably, they all became experts on the border.

They also quickly learn that the alternate power in Canada is not just the parliamentary opposition but the premiers, whose constitutional responsibilities give them weight and influence especially on resources, immigration and trade.

Working with the premiers will be a priority for the next ambassador. In the 25th call between the Prime Minister and the premiers on COVID-19, Alberta’s Jason Kenney said rescinding the Keystone XL permit was a “gut punch” and an “insult.” In calling for retaliatory action, he got the backing of Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe, Ontario’s Doug Ford (who also raised the issue of Mr. Biden’s “Buy America” executive order) and Quebec’s François Legault.

Mr. Trudeau should encourage the President to name his new ambassador as quickly as possible. Given rigorous scrutiny – financial, political and character – and then the Senate process of a hearing and votes, it will likely be months before anyone moves into the splendid U.S. residence called Lornado.

The ambassador’s to-do list is falling in place. Our leaders prioritized combatting COVID-19, strengthening economic and defence ties, and addressing climate change. We need a shared approach to industrial policy.

Each item comes with a subset of issues: vaccine and PPE distribution; more resilient supply chains; the new North Warning System for air defence and the Arctic; a carbon border-adjustment tax. There are the perennial concerns: “Buy America,” softwood lumber, our pipelines. Then there are the global issues on the table at this year’s G7, G20 and climate summits: China, climate, reform of the rules-based order and reinvigoration of the democracies.

The next U.S. ambassador will not solve our problems. But he or she will be a key player and vital interlocutor in managing our most important and complex relationship.

Canadian Foreign Policy

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Canada’s ‘undeclared’ foreign policy needs more focus: former diplomat

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau once confidently declared that Canada’s back on the international stage. Five years later, though, some wonder where the country is exactly.

That is the assessment of foreign policy analysts like Bessma Momani, who says Canada’s foreign policy “is a bit undeclared.”

“People know us as a welcoming country, a tolerant country … so I think the foreign policy is viewed as generally tolerant, if not passive,” Momani, a professor of political science at the University of Waterloo, said in an interview with Global News.

But is passive what Canada is going for?

The Trudeau government has proudly promoted its feminist foreign policy to “advance gender equality and the empowerment of women and girls,” according to a government of Canada website.

READ MORE: Canada’s foreign aid to Afghanistan had some success but many failures, internal review says

There is also an emphasis on female entrepreneurs. In his last foreign trip before the COVID-19 pandemic, Trudeau told an audience in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, that when women and girls have access to education, they lift up the communities.

“But all too often, they’re still missing out on those opportunities. Moving forward together towards greater prosperity means ensuring that no one gets left behind,” Trudeau said in February 2020.

While many believe it’s a worthy endeavour, there is concern the Trudeau government isn’t putting its money where its mouth is.

Canada’s international aid budget is only about $6 billion a year, which equalled 0.27 per cent of the country’s gross domestic income (GDI) in 2019. The OECD target for official development assistance (ODA) is 0.7 per cent of donors’ national income.

That subpar level of spending is why Momani is concerned about the direction Canada has chosen.

The West Block: Foreign affairs minister opens up about international diplomacy during a global pandemic

The West Block: Foreign affairs minister opens up about international diplomacy during a global pandemic – Dec 20, 2020

“If you’re looking for a policy that you can achieve your goals with very little financial resources to it, that (feminist foreign policy) is not one that you should put your money into because it is an expensive endeavour and you’re going to face a lot of global resistance to it,” Momani told Global News.

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The June 2019 loss of the United Nations Security Council seat vote was widely seen as a blow to Canada’s brand, according to Randolph Mank, who served as Canadian ambassador to Indonesia and the Canadian high commissioner in both Pakistan and Malaysia

Significant resources were spent on lobbying other nations for their votes, and now some believe Canada must refocus its attention on another cause.

Mank led Canada’s last major foreign policy review in 2003 and he thinks it might be time for another one.

COMMENTARY: Canada needs a foreign policy review

“We’ve got the ability to make declarations, but we really need is the ability to pursue our interests. And to do that, you have to define them first of all,” Mank told Global News in a recent interview.

In their 2019 election campaign platform, the Liberals promised to establish the Canadian Centre for Peace, Order and Good Government, something that seems to fit with our country’s past strengths, according to another foreign diplomat.

“I would point to participation in the group that’s trying to bring democracy to Venezuela, but that’s going to be a long, hard slog. And our efforts through the Ottawa Group to reform the World Trade Organization, to bring the United States back into it,” Colin Robertson, who has served as the Canadian consul general in Los Angeles, Hong Kong and New York, told Global News in an interview.

S

Robertson’s advice would be for Canada to focus on climate change, democracy and the digital economy. Similar priorities have been announced by U.S. President Joe Biden.

READ MORE: Biden to face difficulties in U.S. foreign policy after Trump’s presidency

“A lot of the success of Canadian foreign policy is aligning ourselves to where U.S. presidents are going and then being helpful because the U.S. is still the leader of the free world,” Robertson said.

With the country still battling the COVID-19 pandemic and setting a course for an economic recovery, the government is likely unwilling to devote resources to a reset on foreign policy. That review might also have to wait until after the next election of a majority government so the department has the confidence it won’t be forced to change direction if there’s a change in government.

George Shultz

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from POLICY: Canadian Politics and Public Policy

Colin Robertson  February 8, 2021

This was not the way I had wanted to meet the venerable George P. Shultz. Recipient of the Presidential Medal of Freedom, America’s highest civilian honour, Shultz had served four presidents: secretary of state to Ronald Reagan, Treasury secretary to Gerald Ford, labor secretary to Richard Nixon and on the Council of Economic Advisors under Dwight Eisenhower. A graduate of Princeton – its tiger mascot was allegedly tattooed on his formidable posterior – he’d joined the Marine Corps and seen combat in the Pacific.

My July 23, 2003 call on former Secretary Shultz in his conference room at the Hoover Institution on the Stanford University campus was a fine example of the delicacy of diplomacy. It was prompted by his remark “So my Canadian friends, why has Canada gone so soft?” — provoked by our refusal to participate in the invasion of Iraq. As Consul General for Canada in California, it was my responsibility to explain the Canadian position.

George Shultz, who died Sunday at the age of 100, mattered to us. He had played a lead role in getting Canada into the G7 in 1976 when he was at Treasury. He would later tell me it was both strategic and personal: the US wanted another non-European member and he liked his Canadian counterpart, then Finance Minister John Turner. As secretary of state, he instituted quarterly meetings with his Canadian counterpart: first, Allan MacEachen, whom he had taught economics at MIT; and then Joe Clark. Allan Gotlieb, our longest serving ambassador in Washington, used to have Shultz and his late first wife, Obie, over to the residence where they talked high policy while watching Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers movies. Shultz was a vital ally in our campaigns for free trade and the acid rain agreement. While George W. Bush was in the White House, Shultz was still a player with influence on key members of the administration, notably Condi Rice, who was national security advisor and later took on his former role of secretary of state.

So, in California, I awaited the great man, surrounded by the pictures and mementos of a long public life. A picture with Senator Ted Kennedy, the “Lion of the Senate” inscribed, “George, A tiger who burned bright in the eyes of Congress and the world.” A sword presented to him by the Commandant of the Marines. “Semper Fidelis” — words that Shultz lived by. The only Canadian in the collection of presidents, prime ministers and foreign leaders was Brian Mulroney. If the intent was to intimidate, it succeeded.

And then the door opened and in trudged George Shultz, looking comfortable in a short-sleeved shirt and khaki trousers. He nodded and took his place at the head of the table, gestured for me to come closer, looked at me for a moment, and then in the measured tone that personified his diplomatic style said: “You asked to see me?”

I made my case, saying that nothing is more consequential that taking a country to war, noting that for Canada the First World War began in 1914, three years before the US joined in and the Second World War in 1939, two years before Pearl Harbour. I also noted that, unlike his father, George H. W. Bush, who had followed Brian Mulroney’s advice and secured a UN mandate for the first Gulf War, George W. Bush was leading a “coalition of the willing”.  For us, the multilateral endorsement was essential.

My July 23, 2003 call on former Secretary Shultz was a fine example of the delicacy of diplomacy. It was prompted by his remark ‘So my Canadian friends, why has Canada gone so soft?’, provoked by our refusal to participate in the invasion of Iraq.

Shultz responded with one of his favourite maxims: “Good neighbours tend their gardens — they weed them and keep them in good order and don’t let them cause harm to that of their neighbour.” Is Canada ‘tending its garden?’ I responded that the ongoing Canada-bashing, especially from the Fox Network, saying that Canada was ‘weak on terrorism’ was not based on facts. He nodded, although I am not sure it was in agreement. I asked if I could see him again and he nodded again.

He meant it, and during my time in California he was an invaluable source of advice on politics and international affairs.

Mr. Shultz and his second wife, Charlotte, would come to our events and they graciously hosted a brunch for then Foreign Minister Bill Graham and his wife Cathy, at their splendid apartment atop Nob Hill.

While Shultz is being memorialized as a traditionalist — one who balked at the hair-brained Iran-Contra scheme and was viewed as the voice of reason in the Reagan cabinet — he also thought outside the box. In a conversation on California’s water shortage, he asked me if we would consider shipping water through our gas pipelines, telling me that when he was at Bechtel, they’d determined that the water they’d bring down from Canada would return through the atmosphere. I told him that water was a sovereignty issue for Canadians and that bulk water exports were explicitly rejected in legislation.

More recently, we would meet at the annual sessions of the North American Forum that he established with former Alberta Premier Peter Lougheed and former Mexican Finance Minister Pedro Aspe to promote closer North American collaboration. He would use the occasions to press on his other preoccupations: the threat of nuclear proliferation, the need for a global migration strategy and the urgency of mitigating climate change.

He titled his memoir Turmoil and Triumph: Diplomacy, Power and the Victory of the American Deal (1993). It was the basis for a documentary series in 2010. He wrote or contributed to many books. My favourites are Learning from Experience, (2016) vignettes illustrating his wisdom, and Thinking about the Future (2019) that spans major policy challenges including technology, terrorism, drugs and climate change. A consistent theme in his work is ts that the United States has a vital stake in promoting democratic values and institutions, something that Joe Biden is determined to revive.

I learned many things over the years from George Shultz, especially about the importance of trust — a theme he returned to on his 100th birthday, when he published The 10 most important things I’ve learned about trust over my 100 years, in the Washington Post. For Shultz, successful diplomacy depends on trust, empathy, a knowledge of history and cultures, and ideas. “You always start with ideas” he would remind us time and again. “And if you don’t start with ideas, you’ll get lost.”

George Shultz was a good friend to Canada, and a champion of the North American idea. When I think of George Shultz, I think of the words from Ecclesiasticus 44:7, etched into the National War Memorial arch on Ottawa’s Wellington Street: “All these were honoured in their generations and were the glory of their times.”

Buy America

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Canadian companies that bid on American government contracts could be cut out of the procurement process if Joe Biden follows through on his Buy American plan after he becomes U.S. president today, according to business and trade experts.

Manufacturers and exporters in Canada supply a vast range of equipment to public works projects in the U.S. from school buildings to wastewater treatment facilities.

But Biden’s promise to prioritize U.S.-based suppliers and products made on American soil could hurt Canadian companies by blocking them from bidding for work, especially after he unveils an infrastructure plan next month.

The Made-in-America endeavour could disrupt the Canada-U.S. supply chain and lead to significant trade tensions, experts say.

Yet the hardest hit firms will be those directly involved in U.S. government contracts, they say.

“If you’re in the business of supplying government procurement projects like municipal infrastructure, those are the companies most at risk,” said Dennis Darby, president and CEO of the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters.

Stricter Buy American rules for federal procurement could hurt manufacturing on both sides of the border, he said.

“Manufacturers are so integrated across North America,” Darby said, noting that a lot of what Canadian companies make are the “bits and pieces” that go into the continental supply chain.

“When U.S. manufacturers do well, so do Canadian manufacturers. We’re all part of the same supply chain.”

The biggest losers in an era of greater U.S. protectionism are likely to be a broad cross-section of Canadian firms supplying products to American municipalities, rather than specific sectors, experts say.

Companies that supply pumping equipment for municipal water facilities, pipes for new sewage lines, or play structures for new playgrounds could all suffer, they say.

Meanwhile, both Canada the U.S. already have “buy national” provisions carved out of existing trade agreements. Military procurements, for example, exclude foreign suppliers.

Donald Trump pursued his own Buy American policies but it’s unclear how much further Biden can expand these provisions without facing a legal challenge, said trade expert Lawrence Herman.

“The question will be whether the expansion of the Buy American provision is permissible within the scope of the (World Trade Organization) agreement,” said Herman, international trade lawyer at Herman and Associates.

Yet the impact of the Buy American agenda on Canadian businesses could be widespread, he said.

“There are a lot of Canadian companies that supply products to American municipalities,” Herman said. “They could all be affected.”

Colin Robertson, one of the negotiators of the original Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and North American Free Trade Agreement, said Canada should come to the table with solutions.

“If Biden goes through with this, you’re going to hear from Canadian companies that feel they’re being excluded from U.S. projects,” said Robertson, vice-president and fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.

“You’re almost better to deal with it on a one-by-one basis,” said the former Canadian diplomat. “If the guy who builds playsets in Ontario can’t bid on a new playground, what you want to do is try and get the province and state to work something out.”

If Biden’s massive stimulus package is approved, the demand for construction materials – especially steel and aluminum – could be huge, Robertson said.

But if the Buy American plan is ramped up and starts to affect materials from Canada, he said negotiators need to point out that ultimately they’ll get better value including materials produced in Canada.

“If you want maximum value for these dollars, it’s better to open up bidding,” Robertson said. “The challenge with these sorts of Buy American programs is you can get cartels forming within your locality that drive up prices.”

Keystone

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Varcoe: Canada mounts final plea for Keystone XL, as prospects dim for Alberta’s investment

Experts on both sides of the border point out the long-delayed pipeline faces mighty political obstacles

As Canada mounts an 11th-hour defence of the embattled Keystone XL pipeline, it faces an uphill battle — and legal experts caution Alberta faces long odds to recover its investment if the project is sidelined by the next U.S. president, Joe Biden.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke for a half-hour Tuesday afternoon with Premier Jason Kenney as both the federal and provincial governments continue to reach out to the incoming United States administration to promote the cross-border oil pipeline.Biden is widely expected to revoke the necessary presidential permits for the under-construction energy development as early as Wednesday, his first day in office, over climate concerns surrounding the oilsands.

Speaking Tuesday to reporters, Trudeau said he’s spoken this week with Canada’s ambassador to the U.S., Kirsten Hillman, about the issue, and Ottawa is making sure Canada’s views are heard at the highest levels.

“Our officials in Washington have continued to make the case for Keystone XL. We understand, of course, that it’s a commitment that the (incoming) administration made many months ago — or the candidate Joe Biden made — to cancel this pipeline,” said Trudeau.

James Rajotte, Alberta’s senior representative to the United States, has also been busy on the matter in Washington “exhausting all options,” according to the province.

However, the hard reality is the decision appears to have been made, although lobbying continues.

Experts on both sides of the border point out the long-delayed pipeline faces mighty political obstacles, including a promise by Biden last May to revoke permits that Donald Trump had previously issued for TC Energy’s pipeline.

Politics has long surrounded this project. Diplomatic discussions between the two countries over Keystone XL also have a long and prickly history.

In 2011, then-prime minister Stephen Harper called Keystone XL a “no-brainer” for U.S. approval. Yet, then-president Barack Obama rejected it four years later.

Colin Robertson, a former Canadian diplomat to the United States, said Keystone XL has attained “mythical” status among opponents who want to defeat the project and stymie oilsands growth.

While Canada continues to push for Keystone XL, other bilateral issues are at play that Trudeau needs to make progress on with the new administration, including working together on the global pandemic.

“I just don’t see a silver bullet” for Keystone XL, said Robertson, who is vice-president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.

“It is never over until it’s over but it may be, in the short term, a rebuff if the permit is rescinded.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. PHOTO BY BLAIR GABLE/REUTERS FILES

Both the federal and provincial governments have been trying to promote the project’s ability to create jobs and strengthen North American energy security. They also emphasize the progress being made by oilsands producers to lower their emissions per barrel.

During Kenney’s conversation with the prime minister on Tuesday, he urged the federal government to convey to the U.S. that “rescinding the Keystone XL border crossing permit would damage the Canada-U.S. bilateral relationship,” according to a statement from the premier’s office.

For Alberta’s oilpatch, the issue has also attracted an intense focus, reflecting the decade-long odyssey to improve market access and ship more Canadian heavy crude by pipeline to the U.S. Gulf Coast refining hub.

The project would generate billions of dollars in royalties and taxes for the provincial government.

That’s part of the reason the Kenney government agreed last spring to take on the political risk and make a $1.5-billion equity investment in Keystone XL, as well as extend $6 billion in loan guarantees that began this year.

About $1 billion of taxpayer money would be exposed if the project is blocked, Kenney told reporters Monday. He reiterated Alberta would have “very strong arguments for legal recourse for damages incurred” if the existing permit is vetoed retroactively.

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However, legal experts aren’t quite so certain. In short, it doesn’t look promising.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney speaks in Calgary on March 31, 2020 about the the plan to kick-start construction on the Keystone XL pipeline. PHOTO BY JIM WELLS/POSTMEDIA/FILE

TC Energy could file a lawsuit in the United States federal court or make a claim under the old NAFTA agreement. The Calgary-based pipeline giant made such a claim after the 2015 rejection by Obama, seeking US$15 billion in damages. (The case was dropped after Trump backed the development upon his election.)

The United States has never lost such a case and paid out damages, noted James Coleman, an expert in pipeline law and a professor at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.

Winning such a battle wouldn’t get the pipeline built, either.

“Suing your way to successful construction against a hostile government, no one would suggest that’s anything but a long shot, even if your arguments are good,” he said.

Alberta could try to recover some of its investment in a separate lawsuit, but it would also face challenges.

“It is long odds, to put it mildly,” said trade lawyer Mark Warner with MAAW Law in Toronto.

“Whether it’s through the U.S. courts or through NAFTA, it would be very long and very contentious and hard to win, but not impossible.”

The 2019 presidential permit for Keystone XL signed by Trump plainly states it can be terminated, revoked or amended at any time at the sole discretion of the U.S. president.

These factors don’t add up to an ironclad case to recover taxpayer money, although Alberta needs to consider all of its alternatives.

“I would say the chances are not good. But given how much public money was put into this, I think there’s a responsibility to seek any compensation you can get, in any way you can,” said University of Calgary law professor Kristen van de Biezenbos.

There will be plenty of time to focus on recouping Alberta’s lost investment if the project is derailed this week.

At this point, Keystone XL still remains a live issue for the federal and provincial governments — at least for now.

Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.

Biden and Canada

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What Canada can expect from Joe Biden: Former Canadian diplomat to U.S. shares his view of post-Trump era

Ahmar Khan

·5 min read

Joseph R. Biden is the 46th President of the United States. His inauguration marks the end of one of the most tumultuous ends to a presidency. Biden is succeeding Donald Trump, but more importantly, he’s taking the reins of a country that has grown more fractured over the past four years, and one that had become the source of anxiety and ridicule globally. But, to some, Biden’s inauguration is a moment of calm in the comfort of a global crisis.

“The inauguration represents relief and hope for the future,” said Colin Robertson, a former Canadian diplomat to the United States.

Robertson, who has worked in the U.S. for years as a diplomat, and met Biden on a handful of occasions, thinks the country is getting a leader that not only knows what he’s doing, but will be a comforting hand during a time of crisis.

“He is somebody with a tremendous amount of experience and empathy, which America needs right now,” said Robertson.

Biden’s empathy was on display on Tuesday, as he and Vice President Kamala Harris held a moment of silence and honoured the more than 400,000 Americans that have died during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“I thought that was quite moving. I thought that was quite sensible and it’s a good sign for things to come,” he said.

The pandemic isn’t the only thing that the incoming Biden administration will have to stickhandle, as they face a worsening economic crisis caused by the pandemic, a social justice movement that is calling for systemic change, and the looming doom of climate change.

“It’s an awful lot to throw at any administration. This is extraordinary and will be a real challenge and test of his political will,” said Robertson.

What we can expect in the Canada-U.S. relationship

What a Biden administration means for Canada

U.S. president-elect Joe Biden is set to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline project on his first day in office. National affairs editor Chris Hall breaks down what this decision and others expected from the new administration mean for Canada.

Not only will Biden face challenges within his own country, but he’ll have to work to rebuild the Canada-U.S. alliance, one that was on shaky legs following scandal after scandal.

“We can develop a better relationship, one that will serve Canada extremely well. Whether it’s the COVID-19 recovery and how we manage this, reopening the border, creating vaccines, there will be a lot of discussion between the two countries,” said Robertson.

When assessing how a Biden presidency will impact Canada, Robertson noted the Trump presidency was rife with protectionist ideals, desire to not be globalists and refusal to work with allied countries. However, he thinks all that changes with Biden.

“For Canada, this offers an opportunity for reset, and I think we should see that. And instead of getting bogged down and by the irritants and protectionism of America, we’re going to get back to working together,” he said.

For a relationship that has seemed testy for the past four years, as Trudeau and Trump have traded some barbs through the media, Robertson thinks there will be a closer relationship with the two state-of-heads going forward, especially on issues surrounding the pandemic.

“Americans always appreciate the intelligence we bring to the table, especially if it’s something that they haven’t heard before. The Americans are always receptive,” he said.

Rebuilding America’s global image

For years now, world leaders have made America the butt of the joke, respect and admiration has dwindled for the U.S. But, Robertson thinks Biden, who he calls a “real statesmen” will have an opportunity to rebuild the American image.

“It’s a return to an American president who wants to lead, who will represent the best of America, and someone who is a multilateralist and internationalist,” he said.

In the past four years, the U.S. has left a series of global agreements: most recently they departed the WHO, have talked about leaving NATO, negotiated NAFTA, exited the Paris Climate Accord, left the Trans-Pacific Partnership, withdrew from UNESCO and the UN Human Rights Council and tore up the Iran deal. In Robertson’s eyes, Trump’s willingness to exit global partnerships has affected the U.S. relationship with a lot of countries, and that is part of what makes Biden so appealing.

“International institutions that were set up will benefit from the new American leadership, they will come in with less of a protectionist attitude and American can work its way to being a world leader again,” said Roberston.

Trump and the Republican Party

Trump leaves office with vow to return ‘in some form’

U.S. President Donald Trump formally left the White House after a struggle to hang on to office by trying to overturn the results of a democratic election.

As for the outgoing president and from his involvement in the insurrection to his desire not to attend the inauguration, Robertson thinks Trump is far from leaving the public spotlight.

“I think Trump will continue to be a pain and he will continue to do what he does best, promote Donald Trump.”

On Tuesday, Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell skewered and assigned blame for the Capitol Hill riots on Trump, insisting he was part of a group that had urged them to incite violence. The rebuke of Trump was the first of what could be many, as McConnell along with Republican House Leader Kevin McCarthy and Vice President Mike Pence all skipped out on the President’s departure.

“I’m hoping the Republican Party will move away from him, but I don’t think it’ll happen quickly because he’s got a lot of sway in the party…I hope that the Republican Party returns to what it was before Donald Trump,” said Robertson.’

Trudeau should lead with shared interests in Biden agenda: Former Canadian diplomat

Colin Robertson, former Canadian diplomat, VP and fellow, Canadian Global Affairs Institute, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss Canada-U.S. relations ahead of the inauguration of Joe Biden. He says that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should lead with the shared interests with the U.S. in order to start building a stronger relationship.

Canada and BIden

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Trudeau should lead with shared interests in Biden agenda: Former Canadian diplomat

Colin Robertson, former Canadian diplomat, VP and fellow, Canadian Global Affairs Institute, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss Canada-U.S. relations ahead of the inauguration of Joe Biden. He says that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should lead with the shared interests with the U.S. in order to start building a stronger relationship.

Challenges ahead despite major shift in Canada-U.S. relations under President Biden: expert

BY CORMAC MAC SWEENEY AND KATHRYN TINDALE

Posted Jan 20, 2021 11:14 am PST

Canada and U.S. flags fly in the wind at the Douglas-Peace Arch border crossing, in Surrey, B.C., on Monday, March 16, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck
SUMMARY

The PM congratulated President Joe Biden, speaking of strong ties between the U.S. and Canada

A former diplomat says Biden’s presidency marks a shift in relations, but there will still be challenges ahead

The Keystone pipeline could bring friction at the beginning, Colin Robertson says

OTTAWA (NEWS 1130) – The official swearing of President Joe Biden marks a shift in Canada-U.S. relations over the past four years, yet one expert says there will still be challenges ahead with the new administration.

Shortly after Biden became the 46th president of the United States Wednesday morning, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau offered his congratulations, speaking of the strong ties and common interests between Canada and the U.S.

“Our two countries are more than neighbours – we are close friends, partners, and allies,” Trudeau writes.

Colin Robertson, a former diplomat who was posted in Washington, says it will be like night and day for Canada, bringing stability and confidence to the Canada-U.S. relationship after years of working with an unpredictable administration.

“Most western leaders, collectively, are sighing relief,” he says, noting the prime minister and the new president have more in common when it comes to political views.While Trudeau says he looks forward to working with Biden on combatting the deadly COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on economic recovery, and advancing climate action, Robertson says there will be hurdles ahead, pointing to the cancellation of the Keystone XL Pipeline between the two countries.

Robertson believes this could cause friction in the early days.

“Mr. Trudeau can raise it, the Alberta government will continue to push, and we’ll wind up in litigation,” he says.

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Ahead of Biden’s inauguration, TC Energy suspended work on the pipeline in anticipation of its permits being revoked. Opposition parties on both sides of the pipeline debate called on Trudeau to take a stand earlier this week.

It’s also unclear at this point, how Biden plans to approach the tensions with China and the detentions of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, however, Robertson believes the president will be a greater ally in the country’s fight for their release.

Biden also campaigned on Buy American policies, and like his predecessor, he may want Canada to play a bigger role in NATO.

“I think he’ll push us to do more in defence,” Roberston suggests.

Trudeau ended his statement on welcoming the president by saying, “I look forward to working with President Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, their administration, and the United States Congress as we strive to make our countries safer, more prosperous, and more resilient.”

An Agenda for Canada with BIden

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How Canada can leverage Biden’s agenda as part of government relations reset

Government can put focus on opportunities in new presidential agenda rather than on old irritants

President-elect Joe Biden, left, will be sworn in Jan. 20 in Washington. He has set himself a formidable to-do list that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, right, should be mindful of when the leaders hold their first meeting after the inauguration, writes former diplomat Colin Robertson. (Carolyn Kaster/The Associated Press, Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)
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This column is an opinion by Colin Robertson, a former Canadian diplomat and now vice-president and fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. For more information about CBC’s Opinion section, please see the FAQ.

Joe Biden’s return to the White House, this time as president, gives Canada a chance to reset what has been a tempestuous ride with Donald Trump.

Biden has set himself a formidable to-do list: the pandemic; economic recovery; climate; racial justice; restoring democracy.

For Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s first meeting with Biden after his inauguration, the government needs to look closely at that agenda. Rather than focusing on the perennial irritants, it should identify where Canada can offer help and solutions, because we share many of these challenges.

Biden’s immediate priority is vaccinating Americans so the country can recover socially and economically from COVID-19, and Trudeau has the same focus. The multilateral response to the pandemic could have been much more effective and would have benefited all if our two nations had collaborated from the outset. But it’s not too late to start.

Some of our best practices will also have application in hard-pressed developing nations, and what better demonstration that “America is back” and “ready to lead the world,” as Biden put it, than to work closer with Canada and share what we have jointly learned about dealing with this virus.

President-elect Joe Biden has promised to make rejoining the Paris agreement on climate change one of his priorities. (Matt Slocum/The Associated Press)

On climate, if Biden rejoins the Paris Agreement as promised, Canada and the U.S. will be back in sync in terms of emission-reduction targets. Together, we need to look to November’s Glasgow conference and what we want to accomplish there, as it will be both a stock-taking of Paris commitments and a setting of new goals.

With this in mind, Trudeau should offer to lead a North American approach to carbon pricing, including instituting a border tax on imports from those nations that don’t meet their climate commitments.

Closer collaboration would also involve identifying best practices and areas for shared research, including initiatives at the state and provincial level. If Mexico were asked to join in, it would go a long way to reviving North American collaboration in other areas as well, like immigration and addressing some of the troubles involving Mexico’s Central American neighbours.

On the issue of mutual defence, unlike Trump, Biden has indicated he believes in collective security and that he embraces NATO. Meanwhile, our binational NORAD agreement needs renewal, and an Arctic strategy is the missing piece in Canada’s defence policy.

American presidents from Ronald Reagan on have told us that if Canada claims sovereignty over the North, then we must exercise it. If we dither, the U.S. will set the parameters for us. To avoid this, we need to quickly take the lead in proposing a joint strategy. Reinvesting in our Arctic would also spark a northern economic renaissance, as well as secure the critical minerals vital to advanced manufacturing.

Joining Biden’s proposed club of democracies also makes sense, especially if it focuses on human rights, development goals, setting digital standards, and strengthening nascent democracies. Likewise, standing up to the authoritarians, especially China, is overdue.

China’s a la carte approach to multilateralism means scooping up the benefits of globalization while ignoring the rules and conventions of global institutions. As a result, China will likely dominate the Biden administration’s foreign and security policy deliberations. As part of those deliberations, Canada needs President Biden to promise that any deal lifting the U.S. extradition request for Meng Wanzhou will include freeing the two Michaels – Canadians Kovrig and Spavor, detained in China since December 2018.

With Canada having about 300,000 expatriates at risk in Hong Kong, we should also offer to co-lead, with Britain, a G7 approach to sustaining the liberties that China guaranteed to Hong Kong.

Michael Spavor, left, and former Canadian diplomat Michael Kovrig, right, have been in Chinese custody since December 2018 after being charged with spying. (The Associated Press/International Crisis Group/The Canadian Press)

And we must carefully strategize confrontations involving the U.S. itself.

In his first conversation with the president-elect on Nov. 9 after the U.S. election, Prime Minister Trudeau pressed him on the Keystone XL pipeline that Biden has repeatedly pledged to rescind.

The arguments supporting Keystone XL are unchanged: as one of 70 pipelines that crisscross our border, it safely supplements American energy independence with a secure and reliable supply of oil. And innovations by oilsands producers have significantly reduced the industry’s environmental footprint. Biden already knows all this. But could he really be expected to go back on his promise to environmentalists, a key constituency in his fragile Democratic government?

Leading with your chin is a bad idea, and Canada needs to be pragmatic.

Indeed, reports Sunday indicated that Biden plans to rescind permission for the pipeline in his first day in office. If that turns out to be the case, Keystone XL is an important issue that requires ongoing attention through different levels of government, but we also need to be realistic in our expectations. The Harper government made Keystone XL the litmus test of its relationship with the Obama administration and it was a mistake, frustrating progress on other issues.

Meanwhile, a pipeline we should be vigorously defending is the 65-year-old Line 5 that Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer wants closed. This pipeline supplies about 45 per cent of the crude oil used by Ontario and Quebec.

Biden’s decision on Keystone XL a political headache, economic blow for Canada

22 hours agoVideo

2:20

Joe Biden’s apparent plan to swifty stop construction of the Keystone XL pipeline may not have been a surprise in political circles, but it will certainly be a headache for Justin Trudeau’s government and be an economic blow for Alberta. 2:20

Let’s also be realistic about Buy American, which is integral to Biden’s trillion-dollar Made in America and Build Back Better initiatives.

It’s equally unlikely that he’ll back away from these plans, but we should remember how Canada finessed former president Barack Obama’s big build economic recovery initiative. With state-level procurement outside of the NAFTA deal, then-prime minister Stephen Harper turned to the Council of the Federation. Led by premiers Brad Wall and Jean Charest, they negotiated a reciprocity agreement with their governor counterparts that gave Canadians a piece of the pie.

Keystone XL and Buy America remind us that our close, deep and profitable U.S. trade relationship requires a calibrated approach involving different levels of government. Several of the provinces have representation in Washington. Quebec has long had offices throughout the U.S., for example, and provincial efforts complement those of our Embassy and consulates; indeed on issues like Keystone they effectively lead. The Canadian tendency to push it all to the top-level leaders is self-defeating.

When presidents meet with prime ministers, they expect top-table discussions befitting G7 and G20 leaders. Effective relations with the new Biden administration will mean dealing with problems at the appropriate level – including cabinet officers, premiers and governors, and our ambassadors. This obliges us to invest in our diplomatic service so that we can bring their intelligence-gathering to the negotiating table.

The new U.S. administration wants to reset relationships with its friends and allies. By seizing this opportunity and being creative in identifying solutions to our shared interests, as well as leveraging opportunities through multiple levels of government, we ultimately advance Canadian interests.

A welcome mat at the White House magnifies Canada’s influence with the rest of the world.


ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Colin Robertson is a former Canadian diplomat and is vice president and fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.