Midterms a Wakeup Call for Canada

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From the Financial Post, October 20, 2010

There are lots of polls predicting the outcome of the U.S. mid-terms, but the one that counts is already released. U.S. unemployment remains stuck at 9.6% and America continues to shed jobs. At the time they introduced the stimulus package, the Democrats predicted that, by now, the unemployment rate would be 8%. And that gap — in jobs and its effect on faith in government — tells you all you need to know about the Nov. 2 elections. Canadians should pay careful attention least we get sideswiped.

Fifteen million Americans have been without a job for six months or more. For youth, a key part of the Obama coalition in 2008, unemployment is over 25%. For minorities, Latinos and African Americans, who turned out big time to elect President Barack Obama, the unemployment figure is closer to 30%, especially in the big cities. It’s devastating news for the Democrats.

The gulf between Wall Street and Main Street continues to widen. In 1980, 8% of U.S. earners received 16% of national income. That same proportion now falls into the hands of the top 1% while the top 20% take more than half. One in four Americans say they have “absolutely no confidence” in Congress, banks, the federal government, blogs and organized labour, according to an AP-NCC poll. The military and uniformed services come first, at 43%. Not great numbers for a nation that prides itself on its institutions, and they do a lot to explain the rise of the Tea Party movement. Americans think their country is headed in the wrong direction and many fear the nation in decline.

For America’s biggest trading partner — Canada — the U.S. malaise is very bad news. A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll says that 69% of Americans believe free trade agreements with other countries have cost jobs in the United States, while just 18% believe they have created jobs. A 53% majority — up from 46% three years ago and from 30% in 1999 — believes that trade agreements have hurt the U.S.

Opposition to free trade agreements, including NAFTA, is particularly strong (61%) among Americans who define themselves as supporters of the Tea Party movement, just 4% less than union members (65%). The greatest shift against free trade comes from relatively affluent Americans, i.e., those with annual incomes of more than US$75,000.

“Make it in America” is the new “Buy America” and Senate and House Democratic candidates have come out with ads condemning free trade agreements. While China will be the main target of congressional action, we’ll inevitably suffer collateral damage.

We need to do more of what John Manley, chief executive of the Canadian Council of Chief Executives, told an audience in Washington earlier this month when asked about efforts by Ohio Governor Ted Strickland to turn the campaign around by arguing that free trade with countries like Canada and Mexico has cost the state 400,000 jobs. The numbers, said Manley, tell a different story. Canada is Ohio’s top export market, purchasing 44% of the state’s international exports. More than 600,000 Canadians visit Ohio each year, spending $138-million. Trade between Ohio and Canada is $35-billion a year. Ohio enjoys a trade surplus. Most importantly, 276,000 Ohio jobs depend on trade with Canada. Manley said that he was happy to set the record straight, but “I would be even happier if more Americans were prepared to stand up and explain why liberalized trade is good for the United States and good for the world.”

Perrin Beatty, CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, had a similar message when he was in Washington in June. He reminded his Capitol Hill audience that Canada is the largest export market for 35 U.S. states and that the U.S. does more in two-way trade with Canada than it does with Germany, Japan, China and the U.K. combined.

Obama wants to double American exports to create jobs. Supply chain dynamics give us an opportunity to be part of that solution. Our political, business, and labour leadership need to develop a strategic plan built around jobs and growth that goes way beyond the FTA/NAFTA. Pursuing Canadian interests in the U.S. through incrementalism won’t work any more.

We need to take a common message about the facts of Canadian investment and the American jobs that depend on trade with Canada into every state and major U.S. city as well as in Washington. We need unity of action and shared purpose that includes premiers pitching governors and labour leaders engaging their American brethren. The mid-terms are a wake-up call for Canadians.

Canada’s Place in the World after the UN Security Council defeat

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For the first time in a half-century, Canada has lost a bid for a temporary seat on the UN Security Council. Does this signal Canada’s diminishing standing as an international player? Squeeze Play’s Rudyard Griffiths and Andrea Mandel-Campbell of BNN asks Andrew Cohen, author, “While Canada Slept,” and Colin Robertson, vice-president, Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute.

Canada must rebuild its diplomatic resources

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Excerpted From Globe and Mail, Wednesday, October 13, 2010 by Allan Gotlieb and Colin Robertson

Canada’s failed pursuit of a seat on the world’s most powerful body – the United Nations Security Council – puts the spotlight on our performance beyond our borders, the strength of which depends on the quality of our diplomacy and the skills of our diplomats….

The ineffectiveness of our foreign ministry has become a cliché in Ottawa’s contemporary political culture. The government has cut the operational resources of Foreign Affairs, especially representational funding – forgetting that an embassy without an entertainment budget is like a frigate without fuel. Diplomats are no longer authorized to talk publicly without the prior consent of the PMO. These remote commissars undermine the very purpose of our ambassadors – to publicly advance the national interest.

While Prime Minister Stephen Harper has made some excellent diplomatic appointments, his government is silent as to why a country needs an effective foreign service. Yet now, more than ever, we need skilled diplomats and a strong foreign ministry.

The international order of the 21st century is increasingly a world of decentralized sovereign entities and fragmentation among states. There is a deepening asymmetry between the structure of this order, with its 190 or so sovereign units, and the overwhelming transnational nature of the threats we face.

It is also a world of fracturing power within states. The explosion in the number of players – competing agencies in ever-expanding governments, narrow special interests, global activists, environmental crusaders, powerful multinationals, muscular NGOs, deep-pocketed lobbyists, legions of bloggers and self-declared experts – give rise to a single imperative: the need for interpretation.

The movements toward globalization and fragmentation place an enormous premium on the need for envoys of the highest calibre to fulfill four core functions. The first is as our chief intelligence officer in their country of accreditation. Second, the ambassador is the chief lobbyist for our national interests and chief promoter of our industry, trade and economic prosperity.

The ambassador is also our chief advocate, a role that goes in two directions. All input back home tends to come from domestic pressures, including special interests. Yet, decision-makers need to understand foreign political realities from their on-site envoy. Lack of knowledge, wrong information or mistaken beliefs can cause problems to escalate and endanger the national interest…

Successful engagement will oblige significant reinvestment in our diplomatic capacity at home, a strengthening of our network of missions abroad and a revitalized foreign ministry as the focal point for co-ordination. The rebuilding of our diplomatic resources will not be easily or quickly achieved. But if we don’t make the commitment, we’ll need to lower expectations about our role in the world.

For reaction to this piece see Brian Stewart on the CBC website and Barbara Yaffe in the Vancouver Sun

Winning a Seat on the Security Council

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Excerpted From CBC Radio The House with Kathleen Petty, October 9, 2010

STEPHEN HARPER (PRIME MINISTER OF CANADA): As a founding member of the U.N. and its seventh-largest contributor to its finances, Canada has been a consistently reliable and responsible participant in U.N. initiatives around the world. This was so in the earliest days of the United Nations; it was during the difficult days of the Cold War, of decolonization and of the struggle against Apartheid; and it remains so today. Canada continues to pay, for instance, the heavy price to fulfill our U.N. obligation to support the lawful government of Afghanistan.

KATHLEEN PETTY (HOST): Uh, did the Prime Minister need to remind everyone of all those things? Don’t they already that that’s who we are and that’s what we have to offer?

COLIN ROBERTSON: No, the Prime Minister did exactly the right thing; you have to remind people what we’ve been doing. This is… Well, it’s a campaign and we probably got into it a little later than we have in the past, but when you’re there, you’ve got to be out there and you’ve got to tell your story. So he did and while there was not a lot of people in the room when he spoke, the important thing was he got the message out and we would have distributed it to all the chancelleries around the world and it would have been distributed to every mission at the United Nations.

KATHLEEN PETTY (HOST): But we’ve believed a little less, lately, I think a lot people have observed and at least not with as much enthusiasm, perhaps as with previous governments.

COLIN ROBERTSON: That’s probably true. I think that’s a reflection around the world; the people are saying: “Look, this institution’s been in place, now, since 1945 and it’s not working as well as we hoped it to.” And that’s another why you have to get involved – if you want to fix it, you’ve got to be there. And the top table at the U.N. is the Security Council; it is the top table in terms of big peace and security issues around the world and the main players are there. There’s some who should be there that aren’t there – I’m thinking, in particular, of Japan, say, Germany, India and Brazil, who all want to have a seat on the Security Council. And that’ll be one of the issues that will probably come up in the next couple of years. The original members, of course, were the victors of the Second World War, but they send their best people – the Foreign minister of Russia, today, for example, is their former U.S. ambassador; there’s a number of issues that will come up at the table and then, there’s talk outside the table, where we can… we can play our interests forward, particularly, say, with China, the United States and with Russia.

Yes, we deserve a seat

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Excerpted From the Ottawa Citizen, Thursday, September 30

First, what the critics ignore is that it is not Harper who is seeking a seat on the Security Council but Canada. As prime minister, Harper is our principal spokesman. Next year it could well be Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae delivering the Canadian perspective.

Second, we’ve doubled our food aid to Africa since 2002, making us a leader in the G-8, and fulfilling a pledge made by Jean Chrétien. Canadian food aid is now completely “untied,” and we are on track to fully untying all of our aid by 2012.

But Canadians need to see that our aid is working, otherwise we risk skepticism about its utility and donor fatigue. After half a century, we have learned a lot about how to deliver development assistance. Putting in place rigorous accountability makes a lot of sense. We need to demonstrate, as Harper put it in the case of the Muskoka Initiative that we can, “measure progress, monitor results and ensure that funds intended for aid really contribute to a reduction in the mortality of mothers and children on a lasting basis.”

Third, we’ve always “tilted” towards Israel, especially in standing with Israel and other like-minded nations. We’ve always been against the double standard by which those nations in which there are few violations of human rights are condemned, while those in which such violations are part of a day-to-day system of government, are allowed to be the accusers and sponsors of resolutions like those targeting Israel around “Zionism as racism.”

In spite of a relentlessly hostile and ruthless neighborhood, Israel is a vibrant democracy whose people have turned desert into one of the most remarkably innovative nations in the world. We may not always agree with the actions and policies of its government, but with the Israeli people we make common cause.

Fourth, notwithstanding its ever-present “crisis of relevance,” the UN still counts. In his memoir, one of our most distinguished UN ambassadors remarked that the public sometimes assumes that the “endless debates replete with grievances, self-glorification, and vitriol” are a “tedious exercise in futility.” Yet this “caravanserai of conflicting interests and ideologies,” he continued, “can act as a catalyst in negotiations and settlements, which, ostensibly, have nothing whatever to do with the organization.”

The remarks are from The Making of a Peacemonger and its author is George Ignatieff, father of Michael Ignatieff. Bob Rae’s father, the impressive Saul Rae, also served with distinction as Canadian ambassador to the United Nations.

The United Nations matters. Its alphabet soup of specialized agencies deal with the big issues of global development including refugees, disease and famine. Their efforts remain essential even if their work is mostly unseen.

Read more: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/deserve+seat/3600489/story.html#ixzz110J7GR8S

On Prime Minister Harper’s UN Speech

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Canada AM: Colin Robertson, a former Canadian diplomat, told CTV’s Canada AM that Canada will be well-served by its strong history with the United Nations. Robertson said Canada has the “best little army” in the world, and once the Canadian Forces are clear of Afghanistan there will be a laundry list of missions they can assist with.

“As the day is long, there is going to be other crises around the world that are going to require the kind of capacity that Canada has developed, particularly in Afghanistan with years of peacekeeping. We have a good reputation,” he said.

Working with the Canadian Council of Chief Executives

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September 23, 2010

CCCE Partners With Ambassador Gordon D. Giffin To Strengthen Engagement On Canada-U.S. Issues

The Canadian Council of Chief Executives (CCCE) is pleased to announce that it will be working closely with Ambassador Gordon D. Giffin to strengthen its engagement with policy makers in the United States on key bilateral and international issues.

Ambassador Giffin, Chair of the Public Policy and International department at McKenna, Long & Aldridge LLP, will collaborate with the CCCE’s policy staff on all matters related to the Canada-U.S. economic and security partnership, including cross-border trade, energy, the environment, intellectual property, procurement and regulatory affairs.

From August 1997 to April 2001, Ambassador Giffin served as the nineteenth United States Ambassador to Canada. As Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy in Ottawa, he managed U.S. interests in the world’s largest bilateral trading relationship, as well as U.S. collaboration with Canada on a wide range of global issues.

“Ambassador Giffin’s deep knowledge of, and commitment to, the Canada-U.S. relationship are second to none,” said The Honourable John Manley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the CCCE. “I look forward to partnering with him and his team in seeking public policy solutions to the shared challenges facing our two countries.”

At McKenna, Long & Aldridge, Ambassador Giffin heads an outstanding team that works seamlessly on a wide variety of matters for businesses and governments on both sides of the border.  In addition to the U.S.-based professionals, Ambassador Giffin’s team includes distinguished former Canadian diplomat Colin Robertson, who established Canada’s first Advocacy Secretariat in the Canadian Embassy in Washington, D.C….

Canada’s campaign for a seat on the UN Security Council

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From The Canadian Press Wednesday Sep. 22, 2010

…One seasoned international observer says it is silly to expect Canada will come up short next month, arguing that Portugal’s recent economic performance will be an impediment.

“The Portuguese have got some big problems,” said Colin Robertson, a retired diplomat and research fellow at the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute. “Do you really want that many Europeans on the Security Council?”

Canada’s perceived pro-Israel tilt in the Middle East, or complaints that it has been inattentive to Africa, won’t hurt next month, he said.

Harper’s growing stature as international statesman, Canada’s recent record hosting the G8 and G20 summits, as well as the Olympics, will ultimately win votes at the UN, said Robertson.

“He’s five years in the ring as prime minister. He’s now seen three Japanese prime ministers. He’s now seasoned,” said Robertson.

“We’ll be judged on our Canadian reputation and our record. The Canadian record is a good record, notwithstanding the domestic critics.”

‘You can’t change geography’: Taking the Canada-US Relationship to the Next Level

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Excerpts from Remarks on Trade Innovation and Prosperity Working Paper 14 of the Institute for Competitiveness and Prosperity Toronto, September 22, 2010

We are blessed to be beside the US – the biggest market in the world and likely to remain so until at least 2025. I realize there are those, especially in this town, who lament our propinquity to the colossus to the South. To them, I respectfully repeat what a Polish diplomat said to me when I was posted to the UN. “Would you rather be us?”

I don’t subscribe to the declinist school on America. I lived in New York City during the late 70s when there were gas lines, graffiti covered the subway cars and, an epidemic of crime. The Big Apple was rotting and the country was in a malaise.  Jimmy Carter encouraged us all to wear cardigans to keep warm. Arab money was going to buy America. But a funny thing happened on the way to Madison Square Gardens. By 1984,  it was ‘morning again’ in Ronald Reagan’s America. Thanks to Rudy Giuliani, Bill Bratton and Comp-Stat, the Big Apple would get its shine back.

Then came Irangate and the 1987 market crash.  Paul Kennedy’s Rise and Fall of Great Powers was a bestseller. This time, the Japanese were about to become ‘masters of the universe’.  Mitsubishi bought the Rockefeller Centre and Sony bought Columbia Pictures. I worked in the Exxon Building – the name came off the building as the oil giant retreated to Dallas.

But you know what? America came back and the nineties launched a decade of growth that we in Canada especially enjoyed thanks to the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement and its stepchild, NAFTA. There were certainly elements of ‘irrational exuberance’ – as I witnessed before the bubble burst in Silicon Valley. But when it did, the Valley climbed back by ‘boot-strapping’ and reinvention.

… Having spent most of my professional life living abroad and much of that in the United States, I agree with Alistair Cooke, who after 3000 broadcasts on the BBC between 1940-2000, concluded that “in America, the race is on between its decadence and its vitality, and it has lots of both.”

CPAC Broadcast on Canada and the future of NATO

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CPAC Broadcast: On Septemer 21st, 2010, Paul Chapin, former director general for international security at the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, and Lieut.-Gen. (Ret’d) Michel Maisonneuve, former chief of staff at NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, with moderator Colin Robertson took part in a  lively conversation on NATO’s future direction at the opening session of the Canadian International Council’s National Capital Branch. The session was broadcast by CPAC. The report is available at the Conference of Defence Associations Institute.