APEC, TPP and Canada-US relations

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excerpted from John Ivison’s ‘A trade deal that Stephen Harper can’t refuse’ in the National Post November 14

With the Beyond Borders trade and security agreement likely to be signed by the President and the Prime Minister in early December, this weekend’s development is an affirmation of the Harper government’s prudent policy of reasonable accommodation of the U.S. – progress over the approach of successive Liberal governments, who, in the words of former diplomat Colin Robertson, delighted in “tweaking the beak of the American eagle to underline Canadian independence.”

It’s a good result for the Prime Minister but he is still left with the prospect of dismantling supply management – a system that inflates prices for Canadian consumers and flies in the face of everything else he believes in. Pre-negotiated reform may be off the table but concerted opposition remains among the other nine or so participating countries.

There will be pressure on Canada to phase out protection of the dairy and poultry industries over time and Mr. Harper’s decision to participate in the TPP talks may signal the slow death of supply management, regardless of the assurances to the contrary given in the House of Commons.

A free trade deal that includes the NAFTA countries and Japan is a glittering prize worth potentially billions of dollars, not least for Canada’s beef producers. The country’s economy cannot be held to ransom by 12,000 dairy farmers.